模拟赛季

在 200 个模拟赛季中，Sevilla 有 38% 夺得欧足联欧洲联赛冠军。

重新抽签

团体 A

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Racing Santander	+3	1,7661,769	4	2	1	1	6.5	4.3	+2	7	2.3	63.0%	63.0%	1,677	12%19% 4%
2	Schalke 04	−1	1,7631,762	4	2	0.8	1.2	6.5	4.6	+2	6.8	2.4	58.5%	58.5%	1,678	14% 6%
3	Manchester City	−5	1,6941,689	4	1.4	1	1.6	5.4	5.7	0	5.2	3.2	31.5%	31.5%	1,695	11% 1%
4	Paris Saint-Germain	0	1,6311,631	4	1.1	1	1.9	4.6	6.5	−2	4.4	3.5	23.0%	23.0%	1,711	1%
5	Twente	+2	1,6201,622	4	1.1	1	1.9	4.4	6.4	−2	4.2	3.6	24.0%	24.0%	1,714	0%

团体 B

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Olympiacos	−4	1,7471,743	4	1.9	1	1.1	6.1	4	+2	6.8	2.3	60.0%	60.0%	1,651	22% 4%
2	Benfica	+6	1,6881,694	4	1.7	1.1	1.2	5.9	4.9	+1	6.2	2.6	49.5%	49.5%	1,666	16% 3%
3	Galatasaray	+1	1,6721,673	4	1.5	1.2	1.4	5.2	5	0	5.6	3.0	36.5%	36.5%	1,670	2%
4	Hertha Berlin	+1	1,6391,640	4	1.3	1	1.7	4.8	5.9	−1	4.8	3.3	33.5%	33.5%	1,678	13% 2%
5	Metalist Kharkiv	−4	1,6041,600	4	1	1	2	4.2	6.5	−2	4	3.8	20.5%	20.5%	1,687	1%

团体 C

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Sevilla	+4	1,9171,921	4	2.9	0.6	0.5	9.2	3.2	+6	9.2	1.5	88.5%	88.5%	1,684	38%13%15% 38%
2	Partizan	−1	1,7171,716	4	1.5	1	1.5	5.3	5.6	0	5.5	3.0	38.0%	38.0%	1,734	11% 1%
3	VfB Stuttgart	0	1,6721,672	4	1.2	0.9	1.9	4.6	6.3	−2	4.6	3.4	27.0%	27.0%	1,746	1%
4	Sampdoria	−3	1,6931,690	4	1.2	1	1.9	4.5	6.1	−2	4.5	3.4	24.5%	24.5%	1,740	1%
5	Standard Liège	−1	1,6551,654	4	1	0.9	2.1	4.1	6.7	−2	4	3.7	22.0%	22.0%	1,750	1%

团体 D

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Tottenham Hotspurs	+3	1,6971,700	4	1.9	1	1.1	6.2	4.6	+2	6.6	2.5	57.5%	57.5%	1,639	12% 2%
2	Udinese	0	1,6831,683	4	1.7	1	1.2	5.7	4.9	+1	6.2	2.7	50.5%	50.5%	1,643	11% 1%
3	Spartak Moskva	+2	1,6401,642	4	1.5	1	1.5	5.5	5.5	0	5.4	3.0	41.5%	41.5%	1,653	1%
4	GNK Dinamo Zagreb	−5	1,6581,653	4	1.5	0.9	1.6	5.6	5.6	0	5.5	3.1	33.0%	33.0%	1,649	1%
5	NEC Nijmegen	−1	1,5751,574	4	1	1	2.1	4.3	6.7	−2	3.9	3.8	17.5%	17.5%	1,670	0%

团体 E

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Milan	+5	1,8331,838	4	2.6	0.7	0.7	8.6	3.6	+5	8.5	1.7	81.0%	81.0%	1,655	13%12%22% 13%
2	Portsmouth	0	1,7591,759	4	2	0.9	1.1	6.7	4.6	+2	6.9	2.4	60.5%	60.5%	1,674	10%16% 2%
3	Wolfsburg	+1	1,6591,660	4	1.4	0.8	1.8	5	5.9	−1	5.1	3.3	27.5%	27.5%	1,699	0%
4	Heerenveen	−4	1,6181,614	4	1	1	2.1	4.2	7	−3	3.8	3.8	16.5%	16.5%	1,709	1%
5	Braga	−1	1,5841,583	4	0.9	0.8	2.2	4	7.4	−3	3.6	3.8	14.5%	14.5%	1,717	0%

团体 F

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Aston Villa	+4	1,7811,785	4	2	1	1	6.6	4.1	+3	7.1	2.2	64.5%	64.5%	1,688	10%12%17% 6%
2	Hamburg	+2	1,7321,734	4	1.6	1.1	1.3	5.7	5	+1	5.9	2.7	49.5%	49.5%	1,701	2%
3	Ajax	+1	1,6981,699	4	1.5	1.1	1.5	5.4	5.5	0	5.5	3.0	37.0%	37.0%	1,709	0%
4	Slavia Praha	−3	1,6801,677	4	1.2	1.1	1.7	4.8	5.8	−1	4.7	3.4	29.0%	29.0%	1,714	1%
5	Žilina	−4	1,6431,639	4	1	1.1	1.9	4.3	6.5	−2	4.1	3.7	20.0%	20.0%	1,723	1%

团体 G

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Valencia	+7	1,7751,782	4	2.5	0.8	0.7	7.8	3.7	+4	8.3	1.7	79.5%	79.5%	1,621	14%25% 6%
2	St-Étienne	−3	1,6571,654	4	1.5	0.9	1.5	5.5	5.3	0	5.5	2.9	42.0%	42.0%	1,650	15% 0%
3	Copenhagen	−1	1,6321,631	4	1.4	0.9	1.8	5.1	6.1	−1	5	3.3	28.0%	28.0%	1,656	0%
4	Rosenborg	−2	1,6111,609	4	1.2	0.9	1.9	4.5	6	−1	4.5	3.5	27.0%	27.0%	1,662	0%
5	Club Brugge	0	1,5821,582	4	1.2	0.9	1.9	4.7	6.5	−2	4.4	3.6	23.5%	23.5%	1,669	1%

团体 H

各俱乐部晋级各阶段的概率
#	俱乐部	Δ ELO	ELO	赛	胜	平	负	进	失	净	分	平均排名	前8	前24	平均对手ELO	能走多远
1	Deportivo	+1	1,7531,754	4	2.3	0.9	0.8	7.5	3.8	+4	7.8	2.0	72.0%	72.0%	1,596	11%21% 4%
2	CSKA Moskva	−2	1,6871,685	4	1.8	1.1	1.2	6	4.5	+2	6.4	2.6	50.0%	50.0%	1,613	15% 2%
3	Nancy	+1	1,6361,637	4	1.7	0.9	1.4	5.8	5.2	+1	5.9	2.8	42.0%	42.0%	1,626	1%
4	Lech Poznań	+1	1,5461,547	4	1.1	1	2	4.3	6.5	−2	4.1	3.7	20.5%	20.5%	1,648	0%
5	Feyenoord	−1	1,5161,515	4	0.9	0.9	2.2	4.1	7.6	−3	3.5	4.0	15.5%	15.5%	1,656	0%

一次淘汰赛模拟

上方模拟中的单个样本；在这一次中，Sevilla 捧起了奖杯。

16强

Racing Santander3

CSKA Moskva3

+2 CSKA Moskva2-2Racing Santander -2

-9 Racing SantanderAETP1-1CSKA Moskva +9

Galatasaray4

Rosenborg3

+18 Rosenborg3-2Galatasaray -18

+13 Galatasaray2-0Rosenborg -13

Partizan4

Hamburg3

+17 Hamburg3-1Partizan -17

+17 Partizan3-0Hamburg -16

GNK Dinamo Zagreb1

Wolfsburg3

-3 Wolfsburg0-0GNK Dinamo Zagreb +4

-28 GNK Dinamo Zagreb1-3Wolfsburg +27

Milan6

Spartak Moskva0

-12 Spartak Moskva0-2Milan +13

+6 Milan4-0Spartak Moskva -6

Ajax2

Sevilla4

+8 Sevilla2-1Ajax -8

-13 Ajax1-2Sevilla +13

Valencia2

Schalke 045

+18 Schalke 043-1Valencia -18

-21 Valencia1-2Schalke 04 +21

Nancy2

Hertha Berlin6

+18 Hertha Berlin4-1Nancy -18

-21 Nancy1-2Hertha Berlin +21

8强

Racing Santander1

Sevilla5

+12 Sevilla2-0Racing Santander -11

-18 Racing Santander1-3Sevilla +19

Galatasaray3

Wolfsburg1

-25 Wolfsburg1-2Galatasaray +26

+14 Galatasaray1-0Wolfsburg -13

Partizan4

Schalke 042

-8 Schalke 040-0Partizan +8

+20 Partizan4-2Schalke 04 -20

Milan5

Hertha Berlin0

-14 Hertha Berlin0-1Milan +15

+9 Milan4-0Hertha Berlin -9

4强

Galatasaray1

Sevilla3

-13 Sevilla0-0Galatasaray +13

-17 Galatasaray1-3Sevilla +18

Partizan1

Milan6

+13 Milan5-0Partizan -12

+3 Partizan1-1Milan -4

决赛

Milan0

Sevilla1

-19 Milan0-1AETSevilla +19

最终排名概率

每个单元格表示俱乐部以该排名结束联赛阶段的概率。

排名

俱乐部

12345

Sevilla

69% 20% 9% 2% 2%

Milan

56% 25% 12% 6% 1%

Aston Villa

41% 24% 17% 11% 8%

Valencia

59% 21% 13% 5% 3%

Schalke 04

33% 26% 19% 12% 11%

Olympiacos

38% 22% 18% 14% 8%

Deportivo

49% 24% 17% 7% 5%

Racing Santander

39% 25% 17% 10% 11%

Benfica

27% 23% 28% 11% 12%

CSKA Moskva

28% 23% 24% 15% 11%

Hamburg

22% 28% 17% 23% 11%

Portsmouth

25% 36% 21% 13% 6%

Tottenham Hotspurs

33% 25% 17% 16% 11%

Galatasaray

18% 19% 22% 30% 12%

Hertha Berlin

13% 21% 15% 23% 28%

Partizan

12% 27% 26% 21% 16%

Spartak Moskva

20% 22% 20% 20% 19%

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

14% 19% 27% 23% 17%

Standard Liège

5% 17% 17% 23% 38%

Udinese

24% 27% 23% 14% 13%

Manchester City

13% 19% 24% 27% 18%

Slavia Praha

12% 17% 20% 24% 28%

Paris Saint-Germain

8% 15% 20% 31% 27%

Sampdoria

7% 18% 25% 28% 23%

VfB Stuttgart

8% 20% 25% 27% 22%

Metalist Kharkiv

5% 16% 17% 23% 40%

Club Brugge

9% 15% 18% 28% 32%

Heerenveen

4% 13% 19% 29% 36%

Nancy

16% 26% 28% 20% 10%

Žilina

8% 13% 18% 26% 36%

Ajax

18% 19% 29% 17% 17%

Copenhagen

12% 16% 24% 26% 22%

Rosenborg

9% 18% 18% 25% 31%

St-Étienne

12% 30% 28% 17% 13%

Wolfsburg

13% 15% 28% 22% 22%

NEC Nijmegen

9% 9% 14% 28% 41%

Twente

8% 17% 21% 22% 34%

Braga

3% 12% 20% 30% 36%

Lech Poznań

6% 15% 19% 28% 32%

Feyenoord

3% 13% 13% 30% 42%