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Forecast accuracy

Every match forecast is scored against what happened. Lower Brier and RPS are better. The base rate is a forecast that always gives the overall home, draw and away frequencies.

Methodology

Season by season

  • beyondELO
  • Base rate
SeasonMatchesBrierRPSSkill
2014/2015 2820.5840.2056.2%
2015/2016 7,6710.5950.2038.3%
2016/2017 7,7930.5830.1999.2%
2017/2018 7,7820.5840.2009.4%
2018/2019 7,8190.5840.2009.7%
2019/2020 7,4000.5880.2039.1%
2020/2021 7,9870.5990.2079.4%
2021/2022 8,0170.5940.2039.2%
2022/2023 7,9940.5890.2029.4%
2023/2024 7,9940.5800.19810.7%
2024/2025 8,0570.5950.2048.6%
2025/2026 8,0870.5960.2058.7%
2026/2027 In progress2,9850.5750.19910.6%

Calibration, 2025/2026

When beyondELO says 60%, about 60% of those matches should end that way. Dots on the diagonal are well calibrated, and larger dots hold more matches.

0%0%50%50%100%100%7% predicted, 11% observed, 1,287 matches16% predicted, 18% observed, 3,686 matches26% predicted, 27% observed, 9,627 matches35% predicted, 36% observed, 2,889 matches45% predicted, 44% observed, 2,378 matches55% predicted, 51% observed, 1,875 matches65% predicted, 60% observed, 1,267 matches75% predicted, 69% observed, 821 matches84% predicted, 81% observed, 375 matches92% predicted, 84% observed, 56 matchesPredictedObserved

Biggest misses

The most confident wrong calls of the latest complete season.

DateMatchForecastResult
May 2, 2026Bayern Munich – Heidenheim95% / 4% / 1%Draw
Jan 24, 2026PSV Eindhoven – NAC Breda94% / 5% / 1%Draw
Apr 29, 2026Sporting Lisbon – CD Tondela94% / 5% / 1%Draw
Jan 24, 2026Bayern Munich – Augsburg92% / 6% / 2%Away
Apr 26, 2026Avs Futebol – Sporting Lisbon2% / 7% / 91%Draw
Oct 29, 2025Lorient – Paris Saint-Germain2% / 7% / 91%Draw
Nov 2, 2025Crvena Zvezda – Radnik Surdulica90% / 7% / 2%Draw
May 2, 2026Paris Saint-Germain – Lorient90% / 7% / 2%Draw
Dec 14, 2025Bayern Munich – Mainz90% / 7% / 2%Draw
May 17, 2026Inter – Verona90% / 8% / 3%Draw

How these scores were made

  • Ratings are replayed match by match using only earlier results.
  • The draw model is fitted on matches before May 23, 2015; scores cover matches after that date.
  • Rating parameters were tuned on the full history, so these scores are not strictly out-of-sample.
  • Calibration is pooled across home, draw and away outcomes.

Record generated Nov 4, 2026