Records
227,556 matches from Aug 1992 to Oct 2026 across 1,472 rated clubs; home sides win 46.2% of them. Updated Oct 28, 2026.
- Home
- 46.2%
- 105,131 matches
- Draw
- 25.2%
- 57,344 matches
- Away
- 28.6%
- 65,081 matches
Home sides win 17.6 percentage points more often than visitors do. The model prices that ground advantage at about +68 Elo before kick-off, and holds every club near it until they have played enough home matches to earn their own number.
The average goal margin is 1.38, counting draws as zero.
Clubs
Who held the top rating
Bayern Munich hold the record rating of 2,199; the top spot has changed hands 216 times since Sep 1993.
The record book
Measured against the 1500 rating every club starts on. Peaks and troughs ignore clubs whose rating is still in warm-up.
Biggest single-match swing
Hardest grounds, best travellers
What a club's own ground is worth in rating points, and who wins most often away from home.
What the model is unsure about
One dot per rated club, plotted on its latest rating — clubs, not matches
Settled ratingStill warming upGrey band: 588 clubs at the model's RD ceiling of 350, spread out so each is visible
Only 439 of 1,472 rated clubs (30%) sit under RD 100, the point at which the model treats a rating as settled. Most of the rest surface once every few years in qualifying.
The largest group of clubs sits between +60 and +70 Elo — 39% of them. The tail to the right is short: very few grounds are worth much more than the average.
31 of 1,472 rated clubs have both a settled rating and a home edge above the +68 average. Another 334 sit above that average on a rating the model does not yet trust — a big home number off a handful of matches is not a fortress yet.
When the model was wrong
Results the model gave the least chance, ranked by how far they moved the ratings. The bar is the favourite's pre-match chance.
Lyon beat Manchester City with 84% of the model's odds against them, the biggest swing on record at 57 points.
Quarter-finals- Quarter-finals
- Group Stage
- Quarter-finals
- Round of 16
- Quarter-finals
- Group Stage
- Group Stage
- Quarter-finals
- Quarter-finals
- Round of 16
Players
When players peak
Median rating by age for every ranked player, with the middle 80% as a band.
Forwards peak at 32, midfielders at 33, defenders at 34 and goalkeepers at 30.
Who held the top player rating
Lionel Messi holds the record player rating of 2,366; the top spot has changed hands 58 times since player ratings began in Aug 2010.
Where the ranked players come from
Each block is a nation, sized by its ranked players; darker blocks have more players in the top 100.
England, France and Brazil supply 41% of the top 100 between them.
Players in the top 1000917
Output against rating
Goals plus assists per 90 minutes against rating, for 4,591 outfield players with at least 900 minutes in the last year
Across: rating. Up: goals plus assists per 90. Darker cells hold more players.Position trend (weak fit)Most output above the position trend