-15 PAOK0-1Genk +14
-8 Genk1-1PAOK +8
Simulate the season
Aston Villa win the Europa League in 22% of 200 simulated seasons.
| # | Club | Δ ELO | ELO | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Avg finish | Top 8 | Top 24 | Avg opp. ELO | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | How far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 1,929 | 8 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 18.9 | 6.5 | +13 | 17.8 | 5.5 | 78.5% | 98.5% | 1,677 | 22%17%15%24% | |||||||||
| 2 |  | 1,886 | 8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 16.4 | 7.1 | +9 | 17 | 6.7 | 71.5% | 99.0% | 1,694 | 19%15%26% | |||||||||
| 3 |  | 1,840 | 8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 7 | +9 | 16.2 | 8.0 | 65.5% | 96.5% | 1,676 | 11%16%20% | |||||||||
| 4 |  | 1,807 | 8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 7.6 | +8 | 16.1 | 8.3 | 62.5% | 97.5% | 1,637 | 16%23% | |||||||||
| 5 |  | 1,791 | 8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 14.7 | 7.9 | +7 | 15.4 | 9.3 | 55.0% | 97.0% | 1,660 | 16%20% | |||||||||
| 6 |  | 1,837 | 8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 14.6 | 8.1 | +7 | 14.8 | 10.6 | 47.0% | 93.0% | 1,697 | 13%25% | |||||||||
| 7 |  | 1,810 | 8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 14.2 | 8.5 | +6 | 14.5 | 11.3 | 44.5% | 92.0% | 1,709 | 18%20% | |||||||||
| 8 |  | 1,796 | 8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 13.7 | 8.9 | +5 | 14 | 11.5 | 41.5% | 93.0% | 1,697 | 13%25% | |||||||||
| 9 |  | 1,779 | 8 | 3.9 | 2 | 2.2 | 12.8 | 8.7 | +4 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 35.0% | 89.0% | 1,703 | 12%20% | |||||||||
| 10 |  | 1,763 | 8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 13.2 | 9.6 | +4 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 30.0% | 91.0% | 1,689 | 20% | |||||||||
| 11 |  | 1,766 | 8 | 3.7 | 2 | 2.3 | 12.5 | 9.3 | +3 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 30.5% | 89.0% | 1,702 | 21% | |||||||||
| 12 |  | 1,730 | 8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 11.9 | 9.9 | +2 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 24.0% | 84.5% | 1,689 | 18% | |||||||||
| 13 |  | 1,684 | 8 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.6 | 11.6 | 9.6 | +2 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 28.0% | 80.0% | 1,653 | 10% | |||||||||
| 14 |  | 1,718 | 8 | 3.2 | 2 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 10.2 | +1 | 11.7 | 17.1 | 24.5% | 74.5% | 1,705 | 15% | |||||||||
| 15 |  | 1,729 | 8 | 3.1 | 2 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 0 | 11.3 | 17.8 | 16.5% | 75.0% | 1,728 | 15% | |||||||||
| 16 |  | 1,682 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 0 | 11 | 18.4 | 17.5% | 71.5% | 1,691 | 14% | |||||||||
| 17 |  | 1,676 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10.9 | 18.7 | 13.5% | 70.5% | 1,690 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  | 1,713 | 8 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.1 | 11 | 11.1 | 0 | 10.7 | 18.9 | 15.5% | 68.5% | 1,712 | 12% | |||||||||
| 19 |  | 1,696 | 8 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 0 | 10.8 | 18.9 | 15.5% | 67.5% | 1,703 | 11% | |||||||||
| 20 |  | 1,624 | 8 | 2.6 | 2 | 3.4 | 9.9 | 12.2 | −2 | 9.9 | 21.3 | 10.0% | 59.0% | 1,657 | ||||||||||
| 21 |  | 1,643 | 8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 12 | −2 | 9.5 | 21.6 | 8.5% | 58.5% | 1,695 | ||||||||||
| 22 |  | 1,633 | 8 | 2.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 12.3 | −3 | 9.5 | 22.0 | 9.0% | 52.0% | 1,697 | ||||||||||
| 23 |  | 1,679 | 8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 9.4 | 12.3 | −3 | 9.4 | 22.1 | 7.5% | 53.0% | 1,717 | ||||||||||
| 24 |  | 1,624 | 8 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 9.3 | 13.1 | −4 | 8.9 | 23.1 | 7.0% | 52.5% | 1,705 | ||||||||||
| 25 |  | 1,634 | 8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 9.2 | 12.9 | −4 | 8.9 | 23.2 | 6.0% | 51.5% | 1,717 | ||||||||||
| 26 |  | 1,614 | 8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 9.2 | 12.8 | −4 | 8.7 | 23.6 | 5.0% | 48.0% | 1,688 | ||||||||||
| 27 |  | 1,584 | 8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 9.1 | 13.3 | −4 | 8.8 | 23.6 | 6.5% | 47.5% | 1,667 | ||||||||||
| 28 |  | 1,610 | 8 | 2.2 | 2 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 13.5 | −4 | 8.6 | 23.9 | 5.5% | 45.5% | 1,701 | ||||||||||
| 29 |  | 1,618 | 8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 4 | 9 | 13.5 | −4 | 8.5 | 24.1 | 3.5% | 49.5% | 1,693 | ||||||||||
| 30 |  | 1,661 | 8 | 2.1 | 2 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 13.5 | −5 | 8.3 | 24.5 | 2.5% | 48.0% | 1,753 | ||||||||||
| 31 |  | 1,561 | 8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 8.4 | 13.5 | −5 | 7.7 | 25.7 | 2.5% | 39.5% | 1,656 | ||||||||||
| 32 |  | 1,563 | 8 | 2 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 14.6 | −6 | 7.6 | 26.1 | 2.0% | 39.0% | 1,681 | ||||||||||
| 33 |  | 1,606 | 8 | 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 15.3 | −7 | 7.7 | 26.1 | 2.5% | 36.0% | 1,737 | ||||||||||
| 34 |  | 1,632 | 8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 14.5 | −6 | 7.2 | 27.1 | 3.5% | 30.5% | 1,751 | ||||||||||
| 35 |  | 1,551 | 8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 15.5 | −8 | 6.6 | 27.8 | 1.5% | 31.0% | 1,706 | ||||||||||
| 36 |  | 1,549 | 8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 14.8 | −7 | 6.6 | 27.9 | 0.5% | 31.5% | 1,688 |
One run of the knockout
A single sample from the runs above; Roma lift the trophy in this one.
Playoff
-21 Maccabi Tel-Aviv0-2GNK Dinamo Zagreb +21
-23 GNK Dinamo Zagreb0-1Maccabi Tel-Aviv +23
+13 Lyon2-1Viktoria Plzeň -12
+1 Viktoria Plzeň1-1Lyon -1
+18 Panathinaikos1-0Young Boys -17
-21 Young Boys1-2Panathinaikos +22
-17 Midtjylland0-2Feyenoord +18
-26 Feyenoord0-1Midtjylland +25
+12 Celtic1-0Basel -12
-19 Basel2-4Celtic +20
-18 Sturm Graz1-4Porto +18
+11 Porto3-1Sturm Graz -10
-16 Rangers0-1Nice +16
+10 Nice1-0Rangers -10
Last 16
-9 Lyon0-1Aston Villa +9
+6 Aston Villa2-0Lyon -6
-11 Panathinaikos0-2Bologna +11
+7 Bologna5-1Panathinaikos -7
+6 Nice1-1Roma -6
+8 Roma2-1Nice -8
-19 Celtic0-2Real Betis +19
+9 Real Betis2-1Celtic -9
+20 Porto3-0Freiburg -20
-19 Freiburg0-1Porto +19
-22 Feyenoord1-2Crvena Zvezda +22
-4 Crvena Zvezda3-3Feyenoord +4
+19 GNK Dinamo Zagreb3-2VfB Stuttgart -19
+15 VfB Stuttgart3-0GNK Dinamo Zagreb -15
+4 Genk3-3Nottingham Forest -4
+10 Nottingham Forest1-0Genk -9
Quarter
+32 Porto2-0Aston Villa -32
-30 Aston Villa1-2Porto +29
+27 Nottingham Forest5-0Bologna -27
+19 Bologna1-0Nottingham Forest -19
+27 Crvena Zvezda1-0Roma -26
+16 Roma5-2Crvena Zvezda -16
+1 VfB Stuttgart1-1Real Betis -1
-28 Real Betis0-1VfB Stuttgart +28
Semi
-2 Porto1-1Roma +2
+21 Roma3-0Porto -21
-30 Nottingham Forest1-3VfB Stuttgart +29
-25 VfB Stuttgart2-3Nottingham Forest +25
Final
+14 RomaAET1-0VfB Stuttgart -14
Finish-position probabilities
Each cell shows a club’s chance of finishing in that league-phase position.