-18 Bodø/Glimt0-1Twente +18
-6 Twente1-1Bodø/Glimt +6
Simulate the season
Porto win the Europa League in 14% of 200 simulated seasons.
| # | Club | Δ ELO | ELO | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Avg finish | Top 8 | Top 24 | Avg opp. ELO | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | How far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 1,835 | 8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 15.6 | 7.9 | +8 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 55.5% | 97.5% | 1,685 | 14%21% | |||||||||
| 2 |  | 1,845 | 8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 15 | 7.7 | +7 | 15.3 | 9.2 | 61.0% | 94.5% | 1,689 | 12%14%20% | |||||||||
| 3 |  | 1,787 | 8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 15.3 | 7.9 | +7 | 15.8 | 9.2 | 54.5% | 94.5% | 1,638 | 15%18% | |||||||||
| 4 |  | 1,821 | 8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 14.5 | 7.9 | +7 | 15.3 | 9.5 | 52.5% | 95.5% | 1,690 | 15%27% | |||||||||
| 5 |  | 1,861 | 8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 14.1 | 7.9 | +6 | 15.3 | 9.5 | 56.5% | 94.0% | 1,726 | 14%15%23% | |||||||||
| 6 |  | 1,846 | 8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 14.4 | 8.1 | +6 | 15 | 10.1 | 51.0% | 92.0% | 1,720 | 13%13%21% | |||||||||
| 7 |  | 1,809 | 8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 14 | 8.3 | +6 | 14.7 | 10.8 | 46.0% | 91.0% | 1,702 | 13%27% | |||||||||
| 8 |  | 1,813 | 8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 13.4 | 8.3 | +5 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 42.5% | 90.5% | 1,708 | 10%18% | |||||||||
| 9 |  | 1,789 | 8 | 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 13.7 | 8.8 | +5 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 38.5% | 92.0% | 1,679 | 13%19% | |||||||||
| 10 |  | 1,795 | 8 | 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 13.4 | 9.1 | +4 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 41.0% | 90.0% | 1,703 | 14%20% | |||||||||
| 11 |  | 1,734 | 8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 12.1 | 9.6 | +3 | 12.7 | 14.9 | 30.5% | 82.0% | 1,683 | 18% | |||||||||
| 12 |  | 1,708 | 8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 12.4 | 9.8 | +3 | 12.6 | 15.1 | 26.5% | 82.0% | 1,673 | 14% | |||||||||
| 13 |  | 1,751 | 8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 12 | 9.6 | +2 | 12.6 | 15.3 | 30.0% | 78.0% | 1,681 | 18% | |||||||||
| 14 |  | 1,775 | 8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 9.7 | +2 | 12.4 | 15.5 | 29.5% | 81.0% | 1,743 | 11%16% | |||||||||
| 15 |  | 1,710 | 8 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 12.5 | 10.3 | +2 | 12.1 | 16.2 | 22.5% | 82.5% | 1,678 | 12% | |||||||||
| 16 |  | 1,684 | 8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 0 | 11 | 18.7 | 12.0% | 71.5% | 1,691 | 13% | |||||||||
| 17 |  | 1,680 | 8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 11.1 | 11.7 | −1 | 11 | 18.7 | 13.0% | 71.0% | 1,688 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  | 1,721 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 0 | 10.9 | 19.0 | 16.0% | 72.0% | 1,713 | 10% | |||||||||
| 19 |  | 1,709 | 8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 3 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 0 | 10.7 | 19.0 | 16.0% | 70.5% | 1,715 | 12% | |||||||||
| 20 |  | 1,709 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 0 | 11 | 19.0 | 15.5% | 69.5% | 1,716 | 10% | |||||||||
| 21 |  | 1,669 | 8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 10.6 | 11.8 | −1 | 10.3 | 20.1 | 9.5% | 64.5% | 1,697 | ||||||||||
| 22 |  | 1,685 | 8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 10.1 | 11.7 | −2 | 10 | 21.0 | 8.5% | 63.5% | 1,732 | ||||||||||
| 23 |  | 1,622 | 8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 11.8 | −2 | 9.9 | 21.2 | 6.5% | 61.0% | 1,662 | ||||||||||
| 24 |  | 1,663 | 8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 11.7 | −2 | 9.8 | 21.3 | 8.0% | 62.0% | 1,710 | ||||||||||
| 25 |  | 1,681 | 8 | 2.6 | 2 | 3.4 | 9.6 | 11.6 | −2 | 9.7 | 21.5 | 8.5% | 60.5% | 1,711 | ||||||||||
| 26 |  | 1,668 | 8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 9.9 | 12.2 | −2 | 9.6 | 22.0 | 7.5% | 59.5% | 1,719 | ||||||||||
| 27 |  | 1,675 | 8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 12.5 | −3 | 9.5 | 22.1 | 9.0% | 50.0% | 1,730 | ||||||||||
| 28 |  | 1,652 | 8 | 2.4 | 2 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 12.5 | −3 | 9.2 | 22.6 | 7.5% | 55.5% | 1,715 | ||||||||||
| 29 |  | 1,655 | 8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 12.5 | −3 | 9.3 | 22.9 | 7.0% | 51.5% | 1,716 | ||||||||||
| 30 |  | 1,586 | 8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 8.9 | 13.4 | −4 | 8.5 | 24.3 | 6.5% | 40.5% | 1,681 | ||||||||||
| 31 |  | 1,616 | 8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 4 | 8.8 | 13.3 | −4 | 8.2 | 25.2 | 2.5% | 41.0% | 1,704 | ||||||||||
| 32 |  | 1,585 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 14.3 | −6 | 7 | 27.2 | 2.5% | 29.5% | 1,709 | ||||||||||
| 33 |  | 1,533 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 14.7 | −7 | 6.8 | 27.9 | 2.5% | 28.0% | 1,669 | ||||||||||
| 34 |  | 1,587 | 8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 15.1 | −7 | 6.6 | 28.1 | 2.0% | 24.0% | 1,743 | ||||||||||
| 35 |  | 1,457 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 18.4 | −12 | 4.6 | 31.6 | 1.5% | 10.0% | 1,688 | ||||||||||
| 36 |  | 1,547 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 17.9 | −11 | 4.8 | 31.7 | 0.0% | 7.5% | 1,757 |
One run of the knockout
A single sample from the runs above; Real Sociedad lift the trophy in this one.
Playoff
-21 Nice0-2Anderlecht +21
-22 Anderlecht0-1Nice +22
+2 Ajax1-1Lyon -2
+11 LyonAET2-1Ajax -11
-13 Olympiacos1-2Tottenham Hotspurs +13
+7 Tottenham Hotspurs2-1Olympiacos -8
-22 AZ Alkmaar0-1Qarabağ +22
+15 Qarabağ1-0AZ Alkmaar -15
-32 Fenerbahçe2-4FCSB +31
-18 FCSB1-4Fenerbahçe +18
+20 Ludogorets3-1PAOK -19
-21 PAOK0-1Ludogorets +21
-1 Dynamo Kyiv0-0Maccabi Tel-Aviv +1
-19 Maccabi Tel-Aviv0-1Dynamo Kyiv +19
Last 16
+3 Fenerbahçe0-0Galatasaray -3
+12 Galatasaray2-0Fenerbahçe -11
+25 Ludogorets3-2Athletic Club -25
+9 Athletic Club3-0Ludogorets -9
-12 Dynamo Kyiv0-3Roma +12
-11 Roma1-1Dynamo Kyiv +11
+5 Qarabağ1-1Frankfurt -5
+10 Frankfurt3-1Qarabağ -10
-15 Lyon0-1Real Sociedad +15
-7 Real Sociedad1-1Lyon +7
-3 Tottenham Hotspurs3-3Manchester United +3
+14 Manchester United3-2Tottenham Hotspurs -14
+21 Twente2-1Porto -23
+13 Porto5-2Twente -13
+16 Anderlecht1-0Braga -16
-19 Braga0-1Anderlecht +19
Quarter
-25 Porto1-2Galatasaray +24
+20 Galatasaray5-1Porto -20
+4 Anderlecht0-0Athletic Club -4
+13 Athletic Club2-0Anderlecht -12
+0 Real Sociedad3-3Roma +0
-26 Roma1-2AETReal Sociedad +26
-4 Manchester United1-1Frankfurt +4
-3 Frankfurt1-1AETPManchester United +3
Semi
-21 Manchester United1-2Galatasaray +22
+13 Galatasaray2-1Manchester United -12
+17 Real Sociedad3-2Athletic Club -18
-3 Athletic Club1-1Real Sociedad +3
Final
-31 Galatasaray1-5Real Sociedad +30
Finish-position probabilities
Each cell shows a club’s chance of finishing in that league-phase position.