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Chelsea win the Conference League in 52% of 200 simulated seasons.

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Each club's chance of reaching each stage
#	Club	Δ ELO	ELO	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Avg finish	Top 8	Top 24	Avg opp. ELO	How far
1	Chelsea	+4	1,8921,896	6	4.7	0.7	0.5	17.7	4.1	+14	14.9	3.5	90.5%	100.0%	1,562	52%14%18% 52%
2	Real Betis	+5	1,7671,772	6	4.5	0.9	0.6	14.9	4.4	+11	14.4	4.4	85.0%	99.5%	1,507	11%20%34%22% 11%
3	Fiorentina	+1	1,7821,783	6	4.2	1	0.9	14.2	4.6	+10	13.4	6.0	77.0%	99.0%	1,532	16%17%25%22% 16%
4	Copenhagen	+4	1,6801,684	6	3.4	1.3	1.4	11.3	6.4	+5	11.3	10.3	49.5%	96.0%	1,554	15%27% 6%
5	Heidenheim	−3	1,7221,719	6	3.3	1.3	1.5	10.9	6.1	+5	11.1	11.0	45.5%	92.0%	1,584	11%14%29% 5%
6	Vitória SC	0	1,6761,676	6	3.2	1.3	1.4	10.4	6.1	+4	11	11.4	37.5%	92.5%	1,554	14%28% 4%
7	Gent	0	1,6791,679	6	3.1	1.2	1.7	10.7	7.2	+4	10.5	12.4	42.0%	90.5%	1,578	14%26% 2%
8	Molde	+1	1,5971,598	6	3	1.3	1.7	10.1	6.5	+4	10.3	12.8	33.5%	93.0%	1,517	20% 1%
9	Lugano	+3	1,5971,600	6	3	1.5	1.5	9.8	6.2	+4	10.5	12.9	35.5%	88.5%	1,512	20% 1%
10	Panathinaikos	+1	1,5931,594	6	3	1.2	1.8	9.9	7.2	+3	10.1	13.2	33.0%	90.5%	1,520	26% 1%
11	SK Rapid Wien	+5	1,5661,571	6	2.7	1.5	1.8	9.3	7.1	+2	9.5	14.8	28.5%	86.0%	1,520	16% 1%
12	Cercle Brugge	0	1,5511,551	6	2.6	1.6	1.9	9	7.2	+2	9.3	15.6	23.0%	81.5%	1,497	13% 0%
13	Başakşehir	+2	1,5961,598	6	2.6	1.5	2	8.9	7.5	+2	9.2	16.0	20.5%	84.0%	1,568	20% 1%
14	Omonoia	0	1,5441,544	6	2.5	1.5	2	8.6	7.6	+1	8.9	16.5	21.0%	80.0%	1,511	13% 0%
15	Jagiellonia	+5	1,5161,521	6	2.5	1.3	2.2	8.6	8.3	0	8.8	17.4	20.0%	74.0%	1,526	1%
16	Legia Warszawa	0	1,5601,560	6	2.3	1.5	2.1	8.3	7.8	+1	8.5	17.7	19.0%	72.5%	1,546	16% 1%
17	Djurgården	−1	1,5201,519	6	2.2	1.5	2.3	7.9	7.8	0	8.2	18.6	15.5%	72.5%	1,515	0%
18	APOEL	0	1,5411,541	6	2.3	1.4	2.3	7.9	8.4	0	8.3	18.7	16.0%	68.5%	1,536	0%
19	St. Gallen	+4	1,5661,570	6	2.2	1.4	2.4	8.2	8.4	0	8	18.9	14.5%	67.5%	1,595	11% 0%
20	LASK Linz	+2	1,5141,516	6	2.2	1.4	2.5	7.9	8.7	−1	7.9	19.4	14.0%	66.5%	1,533	0%
21	Noah	−2	1,5041,502	6	2.2	1.3	2.5	8	9.9	−2	8	19.7	13.5%	68.0%	1,543	0%
22	Olimpija	0	1,5021,502	6	2.2	1.4	2.5	7.9	9	−1	7.8	20.0	10.5%	67.0%	1,530	10% 0%
23	Borac	−1	1,4571,456	6	2	1.5	2.5	7.2	8.4	−1	7.4	20.9	9.5%	61.0%	1,494	0%
24	Pafos	−1	1,5321,531	6	2	1.4	2.7	7.4	9.4	−2	7.2	21.4	7.5%	62.0%	1,580	1%
25	Dinamo-Minsk	−3	1,4611,458	6	1.9	1.3	2.8	7.4	9.7	−2	6.9	22.3	9.5%	57.5%	1,521	0%
26	Astana	−4	1,4871,483	6	1.8	1.2	3	7.3	10.2	−3	6.6	23.0	6.5%	51.5%	1,565	0%
27	Celje	−5	1,4831,478	6	1.7	1.3	3.1	6.7	10.6	−4	6.2	24.0	3.0%	46.5%	1,575	0%
28	Larne	−5	1,4501,445	6	1.5	1.4	3	6.5	10.1	−3	6	24.6	3.5%	45.5%	1,532	0%
29	Hearts	+2	1,4161,418	6	1.5	1.2	3.3	6.2	11.4	−5	5.7	25.9	2.5%	35.5%	1,561	0%
30	Shamrock Rovers	−4	1,3861,382	6	1.4	1.2	3.4	6.1	12.5	−6	5.5	26.5	2.5%	33.5%	1,545	0%
31	Víkingur R.	−5	1,3861,381	6	1.3	1.4	3.4	5.9	10.8	−5	5.3	26.6	3.0%	34.0%	1,515	0%
32	HJK Helsinki	−3	1,4291,426	6	1.3	1.1	3.5	5.9	12.2	−6	5.1	27.0	1.0%	36.5%	1,586	0%
33	Mladá Boleslav	−5	1,4841,479	6	1.3	1.3	3.5	5.7	11	−5	5.1	27.1	3.0%	29.5%	1,610	0%
34	The New Saints	+1	1,3611,362	6	1.3	1.2	3.5	5.3	11.9	−7	5.1	27.4	3.0%	32.0%	1,542	0%
35	TSC	−3	1,3871,384	6	1	1.3	3.7	5.4	12.2	−7	4.3	28.8	0.0%	23.0%	1,566	0%
36	Petrocub	−11	1,4081,397	6	1	1.2	3.8	5.3	12	−7	4.2	29.1	0.5%	22.5%	1,566	0%