-17 PSV Eindhoven0-1RB Leipzig +17
+9 RB Leipzig2-1PSV Eindhoven -9
Simulate the season
Manchester City win the Champions League in 35% of 200 simulated seasons.
| # | Club | Δ ELO | ELO | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Avg finish | Top 8 | Top 24 | Avg opp. ELO | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | How far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 2,148 | 8 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 21.9 | 5.3 | +17 | 19.4 | 3.9 | 87.5% | 100.0% | 1,833 | 35%17%20%19% | |||||||||
| 2 |  | 2,129 | 8 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 20.7 | 5.6 | +15 | 19.2 | 4.1 | 89.0% | 100.0% | 1,850 | 26%20%17%20% | |||||||||
| 3 |  | 1,990 | 8 | 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 7.3 | +10 | 16.5 | 8.1 | 63.0% | 98.0% | 1,798 | 19%25% | |||||||||
| 4 |  | 2,005 | 8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 16.7 | 7.7 | +9 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 51.5% | 98.0% | 1,822 | 16%26% | |||||||||
| 5 |  | 2,013 | 8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 16.1 | 7.8 | +8 | 15.8 | 9.3 | 55.5% | 96.5% | 1,857 | 16%26% | |||||||||
| 6 |  | 1,968 | 8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 16.2 | 8.2 | +8 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 53.0% | 97.5% | 1,814 | 10%30% | |||||||||
| 7 |  | 1,991 | 8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 15 | 7.7 | +7 | 15.4 | 10.2 | 53.5% | 93.0% | 1,850 | 18%23% | |||||||||
| 8 |  | 2,017 | 8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 15.3 | 8.4 | +7 | 15 | 10.4 | 46.0% | 98.0% | 1,881 | 14%27% | |||||||||
| 9 |  | 1,943 | 8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 14.3 | 8.5 | +6 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 40.0% | 92.5% | 1,827 | 11%25% | |||||||||
| 10 |  | 1,944 | 8 | 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 13.2 | 9.1 | +4 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 30.0% | 93.5% | 1,866 | 23% | |||||||||
| 11 |  | 1,875 | 8 | 3.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 12.3 | 9.5 | +3 | 12.6 | 15.3 | 25.0% | 81.5% | 1,824 | 12% | |||||||||
| 12 |  | 1,866 | 8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 12.4 | 10 | +2 | 12.6 | 15.5 | 20.5% | 87.0% | 1,821 | 13% | |||||||||
| 13 |  | 1,964 | 8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 12.3 | 9.7 | +3 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 26.0% | 82.0% | 1,905 | 23% | |||||||||
| 14 |  | 1,909 | 8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 12.4 | 9.9 | +3 | 12.4 | 15.7 | 19.0% | 86.5% | 1,848 | 16% | |||||||||
| 15 |  | 1,869 | 8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 12 | 10.6 | +1 | 11.8 | 16.8 | 19.5% | 81.5% | 1,841 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  | 1,898 | 8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 11.7 | 11.1 | +1 | 11.4 | 17.7 | 17.0% | 75.5% | 1,878 | 11% | |||||||||
| 17 |  | 1,839 | 8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 0 | 11.5 | 17.8 | 12.0% | 79.5% | 1,839 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  | 1,940 | 8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 0 | 11.3 | 17.9 | 13.5% | 75.5% | 1,931 | 14% | |||||||||
| 19 |  | 1,822 | 8 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | −1 | 10.7 | 19.2 | 12.0% | 69.5% | 1,824 | ||||||||||
| 20 |  | 1,861 | 8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | −1 | 10.5 | 19.3 | 10.5% | 73.0% | 1,878 | ||||||||||
| 21 |  | 1,835 | 8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 10.7 | 11.7 | −1 | 10.7 | 19.4 | 11.0% | 68.5% | 1,857 | ||||||||||
| 22 |  | 1,801 | 8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 10.3 | 12 | −2 | 10.1 | 20.6 | 11.0% | 62.0% | 1,846 | ||||||||||
| 23 |  | 1,817 | 8 | 2.6 | 2 | 3.4 | 10 | 12 | −2 | 9.9 | 20.9 | 13.0% | 63.5% | 1,862 | ||||||||||
| 24 |  | 1,732 | 8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 9.7 | 12.8 | −3 | 9.2 | 22.4 | 5.5% | 57.0% | 1,801 | ||||||||||
| 25 |  | 1,796 | 8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 8.9 | 13.6 | −5 | 8.6 | 23.5 | 2.0% | 50.0% | 1,891 | ||||||||||
| 26 |  | 1,790 | 8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 13.8 | −5 | 8.2 | 24.4 | 4.0% | 45.0% | 1,885 | ||||||||||
| 27 |  | 1,760 | 8 | 1.9 | 2 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 14.5 | −6 | 7.8 | 25.4 | 3.0% | 43.0% | 1,870 | ||||||||||
| 28 |  | 1,743 | 8 | 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 15.1 | −7 | 7.8 | 25.5 | 1.0% | 42.5% | 1,877 | ||||||||||
| 29 |  | 1,780 | 8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 15.2 | −7 | 7.4 | 25.8 | 1.0% | 38.5% | 1,903 | ||||||||||
| 30 |  | 1,718 | 8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 15.2 | −7 | 7.1 | 26.6 | 0.5% | 32.5% | 1,842 | ||||||||||
| 31 |  | 1,721 | 8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 15.4 | −7 | 7.1 | 26.7 | 1.5% | 33.0% | 1,861 | ||||||||||
| 32 |  | 1,690 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 15.6 | −8 | 6.7 | 27.3 | 1.5% | 30.5% | 1,857 | ||||||||||
| 33 |  | 1,672 | 8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 16 | −9 | 6.5 | 27.8 | 0.0% | 27.5% | 1,836 | ||||||||||
| 34 |  | 1,673 | 8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 5 | 7.5 | 17.4 | −10 | 6.1 | 28.5 | 0.5% | 24.0% | 1,869 | ||||||||||
| 35 |  | 1,665 | 8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5 | 6.7 | 16.5 | −10 | 5.4 | 29.8 | 0.5% | 15.5% | 1,866 | ||||||||||
| 36 |  | 1,613 | 8 | 1 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 6 | 20.1 | −14 | 4.2 | 32.0 | 0.0% | 8.5% | 1,888 |
One run of the knockout
A single sample from the runs above; Leverkusen lift the trophy in this one.
Playoff
-25 Liverpool0-2Barcelona +26
-32 Barcelona0-1Liverpool +32
+7 Girona1-1Arsenal -7
+9 Arsenal2-1Girona -9
+5 Bologna0-0Atalanta -5
-31 Atalanta1-2Bologna +30
-20 Brest0-2Aston Villa +19
-33 Aston Villa0-1Brest +34
+14 Young Boys0-0Manchester City -16
-48 Manchester City3-5AETYoung Boys +44
+34 Celtic3-0Sporting Lisbon -35
-8 Sporting Lisbon0-0Celtic +7
-4 Monaco0-0Sparta Praha +4
-24 Sparta Praha0-1Monaco +24
Last 16
-9 Bologna0-2Real Madrid +10
+5 Real Madrid2-0Bologna -5
+32 Young Boys3-2Bayern Munich -33
+12 Bayern Munich3-0Young Boys -11
-17 Celtic0-3Borussia Dortmund +17
-15 Borussia Dortmund1-1Celtic +15
+28 Monaco2-0Atletico Madrid -29
+20 Atletico Madrid3-0Monaco -20
-23 Arsenal0-1Inter +23
-30 InterAETP2-3Arsenal +29
-16 Aston Villa0-1Leverkusen +17
+9 Leverkusen2-1Aston Villa -9
-32 RB Leipzig0-1Feyenoord +33
+28 Feyenoord4-1RB Leipzig -28
+18 Barcelona1-0Paris Saint-Germain -18
+0 Paris Saint-Germain2-2Barcelona +0
Quarter
-22 Barcelona0-2Real Madrid +23
+11 Real Madrid2-0Barcelona -10
+27 Feyenoord2-1Bayern Munich -27
-31 Bayern Munich1-2Feyenoord +31
+25 Inter4-2Borussia Dortmund -25
+36 Borussia Dortmund3-0Inter -36
+19 Leverkusen3-1Atletico Madrid -19
+30 Atletico Madrid2-1Leverkusen -30
Semi
-19 Feyenoord2-4Real Madrid +19
-19 Real Madrid1-1Feyenoord +18
+22 Leverkusen2-1Borussia Dortmund -22
+25 Borussia Dortmund3-2AETPLeverkusen -24
Final
-39 Real Madrid1-2Leverkusen +38
Finish-position probabilities
Each cell shows a club’s chance of finishing in that league-phase position.