Stats for nerds

167,784 matches from Aug 1992 to Sep 2026, 1,272 rated clubs, updated Oct 1, 2026.

Home: 46.4%; 77,852 matches
Draw: 25.2%; 42,281 matches
Away: 28.4%; 47,651 matches

Home sides win 18 percentage points more often than visitors do. The model prices that ground advantage at about +68 Elo before kick-off, and holds every club near it until they have played enough home matches to earn their own number.

The average goal margin is 1.39, counting draws as zero.

Clubs

Who held the top rating

The line is the top rating in Europe on each day; the rows below mark every spell each club held it. Hover a club to find its stretch of line.

Bayern Munich 2,118

Barcelona2,27718.3%2

Bayern Munich1,83114.7%3

Manchester United1,45211.7%4

Real Madrid1,32610.7%5

Ajax7185.8%6

Manchester City6475.2%7

Paris Saint-Germain1681.3%15

Lyon1621.3%

The record book

Measured against the 1500 rating every club starts on. Peaks and troughs ignore clubs whose rating is still in warm-up.

Lowest rating ever

1,085MOIK BakuFeb 25, 2011 Highest rating ever

2,118Bayern MunichNov 7, 2020

Grey bars: every rating live today (1,272 clubs)

Biggest single-match swing

Skonto

0–5

Spartak Moskva

±80Sep 15, 1993

Hardest grounds to visit

Extra Elo the model adds at home, drawn from the +68 league average

Catania+122 2

Atletico Madrid+114 3

Settled rating Not settled yet (RD above 100): few home matches behind the number

Best records on the road

Away wins as a share of away matches played

Celtic57.2%425/743 2

Porto56.8%394/694 3

Union SG55.7%68/122 4

Bayern Munich54.8%403/735 5

Olympiacos54.4%316/581 6

Benfica53.5%364/680 7

Ajax53.1%380/715 8

Rangers52.3%347/664 9

Real Madrid52.2%422/808 10

Barcelona52.2%423/811

Away win rate

The axis is zoomed to the data; dot size is away matches played. Minimum 15 away matches. The fraction on the right is wins over matches played — a high percentage off a short run is not the same claim as one off a long run.

What the model is unsure about

One dot per rated club, plotted on its latest rating — clubs, not matches

Settled ratingStill warming upGrey band: 541 clubs at the model's RD ceiling of 350, spread out so each is visible

Only 318 of 1,272 rated clubs (25%) sit under RD 100, the point at which the model treats a rating as settled. Most of the rest surface once every few years in qualifying.

The largest group of clubs sits between +60 and +70 Elo — 38% of them. The tail to the right is short: very few grounds are worth much more than the average.

174 of 1,272 rated clubs have both a settled rating and a home edge above the +68 average. Another 275 sit above that average on a rating the model does not yet trust — a big home number off a handful of matches is not a fortress yet.

When the model was wrong

Ranked by how far the result moved the ratings. Only matches where the favourite had at least a 65% chance, and where both clubs already had a settled rating.

#DateMatchFavourite's chanceSwing

1Aug 15, 2020Manchester City

1–3

Lyon81%56

2Oct 29, 2002Maccabi Haifa