Biggest ELO Movers: Rapid Wien Surges as Mjällby Slumps

Two months into the 2026/27 campaign, the beyondELO Glicko-2 ratings have begun to separate sustained momentum from early volatility. Across European club competition, performance relative to pre-match expectation is reshaping the standings. Some clubs have compounded rating points at a remarkable rate, while others have surrendered hard-earned ground.

From Austrian dominance at the top of the progression charts to dramatic regressions in Sweden and Poland, here is an analysis of the clubs moving fastest across the European rankings as of 15 October 2026.

The Season's Steepest Fallers

Where there are outsized gainers, rating points must also be conceded. The downward movers list contains several established names that have failed to meet Glicko-2 rating expectations in 2026/27.

Mjällby's Freefall

The most extreme outlier across all tracked European sides is Sweden's Mjällby AIF. Dropping -157 points in a single campaign represents severe underperformance. While Mjällby still hold a rating of 1505 (rank 243), their slide dwarfs every other downward mover in Europe; the second-steepest fall belongs to Raków Częstochowa, who shed -99 points to slip to 1499 (rank 251).

Swedish football presents two diametrically opposed cases this season: Västerås SK have surged by +83 points, whereas Mjällby have shed -157. This contrasting movement closes the rating gap between the two domestic rivals to just 56 points (1505 versus 1449).

High-Ranked Pressure: Hoffenheim's Slide

Hoffenheim remain the highest-ranked club on either movers list, positioned at 79th in Europe with a 1670 rating. However, their -69 change is particularly costly in the upper tiers of European football. Because ratings cluster densely within the top 100, dropping nearly 70 points signals chronic failure to justify favourite status in expected win calculations.

Elsewhere, Denmark's AGF Aarhus have dropped -82 points to 1580 (rank 159), placing them beneath Rapid Wien (1572) in terms of trajectory even if their absolute rating remains narrowly higher.

Projecting the Trajectories

Rating momentum is not merely decorative; it recalibrates future expected values. In the beyondELO framework, an updated ELO score directly shifts the win expectations assigned to upcoming fixtures.

• Narrowed Gaps: Clubs like Västerås (1449) and Mjällby (1505) are converging rapidly. Should their trajectories persist over the coming matchdays, an inversion in Swedish hierarchy is statistically plausible.
• Top-Tier Fragility: Hoffenheim (1670) and Gent (1643) sit separated by just 27 rating points. While Gent gained +79 and Hoffenheim dropped -69, Gent's current trajectory puts them within striking distance of overtaking Hoffenheim in the European top 100.

For a full assessment of how these updated ratings reshape two-way expected win values for forthcoming fixtures, test prospective pairings using our match predictor.