Biggest ELO Movers: European Clubs Rising and Falling in 2026/27

As the 2026/27 season progresses towards late September, beyondELO's rating model provides a clear picture of performance trajectories across UEFA's domestic and continental competitions. By evaluating dynamic rating gains and losses relative to expected team output, our Glicko-2 framework identifies which clubs are outperforming expectations and which are enduring significant rating drops.

Evaluating these rating dynamics helps untangle domestic momentum from sheer squad stature. Up to 28 September 2026, the updated European rankings display substantial shifts across mid-tier and elite European teams alike. Below is an analytical breakdown of the largest movers across the continent this season.

Top European Risers in 2026/27

Greek club OFI currently leads all tracked UEFA teams in rating gain for the 2026/27 campaign, increasing their rating by 83 points to reach an overall rating of 1477. Closely behind are Austrian Bundesliga side RB Salzburg, who have added 82 rating points to climb to a rating of 1614 and a European rank of 106.

Austria features prominently among the top gainers. Alongside RB Salzburg's 82-point gain, SK Rapid Wien have increased their rating by 74 points, rising to a rating of 1529 and European rank 183. Together, the two Austrian sides have accumulated 156 points in combined rating increases during the 2026/27 campaign.

In Southern and Western Europe, Italian outfit Frosinone Calcio have earned 73 rating points, elevating their rating to 1575 at European rank 137. Spanish side Deportivo have gained 57 points, placing them at rank 115 with a rating of 1602. Norwegian club Rosenborg (+77 points, rank 151, rating 1559), Belgian side Gent (+69 points, rank 105, rating 1614), and Czechia's FC Zbrojovka Brno (+67 points, rank 310, rating 1421) round out the eight largest rating gainers. Notably, Gent and RB Salzburg are currently tied at an identical rating of 1614, occupying adjacent European ranks 105 and 106.

The Steepest Fallers Across UEFA

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Danish team AGF Aarhus have registered the largest rating decline of any European club in the dataset. AGF Aarhus have lost 90 rating points during the 2026/27 campaign, dropping their rating to 1554 and settling at European rank 157.

German Bundesliga club Hoffenheim represent the highest-ranked team among the steepest fallers. Despite losing 54 rating points this season, Hoffenheim remain at European rank 67 with a rating of 1662. That rating keeps Hoffenheim 48 points ahead of the highest-rated riser, RB Salzburg (1614), illustrating how higher starting ratings can cushion the impact of a sharp early-season slump on overall rank order.

Belgium exhibits contrasting fortunes in the 2026/27 season data. While Gent added 69 points to reach rank 105, two Belgian Pro League contemporaries suffer from significant drops: KV Kortrijk have fallen by 55 points (rating 1370, rank 359) and Mechelen have decreased by 50 points (rating 1464, rank 250). Combined, Kortrijk and Mechelen have dropped 105 rating points.

Greece exhibits a similar internal divergence. While OFI stand as Europe's top riser with +83 points, Greek club Kalamata have lost 54 points, falling to a rating of 1424 at rank 304. Elsewhere in the table, Italian side Venezia FC have shed 51 points (rating 1426, rank 299), Turkish club Samsunspor have lost 49 points (rating 1502, rank 211), and Dutch team NEC Nijmegen have dropped 49 points (rating 1532, rank 180).

Analyzing Rating Trajectories and Expectations

Comparing the top gainers and fallers highlights how ratings evolve across different tiers of European football. Lower-rated teams starting around the 1400–1500 range, such as FC Zbrojovka Brno (1421) or OFI (1477), can quickly alter their European status with sustained positive results. Conversely, teams operating in lower tiers that experience negative form, such as KV Kortrijk (1370) or Kalamata (1424), risk dropping towards the bottom third of UEFA ratings.

For mid-tier clubs in the 1500–1600 rating bracket, season changes carry substantial structural consequences. AGF Aarhus's 90-point drop brings them down to 1554, while Rosenborg's 77-point gain raises them to 1559. As a result, Rosenborg now sit six places above Aarhus in the European rankings.

To evaluate how these updated ratings influence forthcoming fixtures and relative expectations, analysts and supporters can consult our match predictor, which recalculates match expectancy based on updated rating inputs across all UEFA competitions.